Match context

The upcoming match between Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cherno More Varna are in position 13 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD. Dunav Ruse are in position 10 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Cherno More Varna recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDDDWWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Dunav Ruse recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLDDDWL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cherno More Varna recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and Dunav Ruse recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Cherno More Varna or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.11%, 24.77% and 17.12%. The model momentum difference is 40.99 points in favour of Cherno More Varna. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Cherno More Varna at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Dunav Ruse away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 5 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cherno More Varna at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Cherno More Varna received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Dunav Ruse away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Dunav Ruse received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.