Match context

The upcoming match between Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa is scheduled for 31.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The listed venue is Arena Arda, Kardzhali. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Arda Kardzhali are in position 5 with 13 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLW. Botev Vratsa are in position 11 with 4 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Arda Kardzhali recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWDLDLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Botev Vratsa recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLDWDWD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Arda Kardzhali recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Botev Vratsa recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 96%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Arda Kardzhali to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.50%, 25.00% and 12.50%. The model momentum difference is 50.00 points in favour of Arda Kardzhali. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.25%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Arda Kardzhali 0 / Botev Vratsa 0 supports Arda Kardzhali by an average 1.23 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Botev Vratsa away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Arda Kardzhali received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Botev Vratsa away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Botev Vratsa received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Arda Kardzhali at 0. The stored market movement was 1.23 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.