Match context

The upcoming match between Spartak Varna and Ludogorets is scheduled for 30.08.2026 16:00 in First League. The listed venue is Stadion Spartak, Varna. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Spartak Varna are in position 9 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWW. Ludogorets are in position 2 with 16 points after 3 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW.

Recent results

Spartak Varna recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWWDWDLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ludogorets recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWDWLWWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Spartak Varna recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Ludogorets recorded 7 wins. The average total was 3.38 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.90; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ludogorets to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.98%, 22.78% and 60.25%. The model momentum difference is 43.27 points in favour of Ludogorets. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.55 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.62%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Spartak Varna -1 / Ludogorets +1 supports Ludogorets by an average 1.60 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Spartak Varna at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ludogorets away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Spartak Varna and Ludogorets ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.38 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Spartak Varna at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Spartak Varna received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ludogorets away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Ludogorets received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ludogorets at +1. The stored market movement was 1.6 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.