Match context

The upcoming match between Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia is scheduled for 05.09.2026 16:00 in First League. The listed venue is Stadion Spartak, Varna. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Spartak Varna are in position 6 with 8 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLW. CSKA Sofia are in position 3 with 16 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Spartak Varna recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWWDWDL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. CSKA Sofia recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLWWWDW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Spartak Varna recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and CSKA Sofia recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.89 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 55.6% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.93; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 94%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CSKA Sofia to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.14%, 23.20% and 60.66%. The model momentum difference is 44.52 points in favour of CSKA Sofia. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.19%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Spartak Varna 0 / CSKA Sofia 0 supports CSKA Sofia by an average 1.52 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 13 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Spartak Varna at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for CSKA Sofia away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.89 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.93 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 94%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Spartak Varna at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Spartak Varna received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CSKA Sofia away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, CSKA Sofia received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported CSKA Sofia at 0. The stored market movement was 1.52 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.