Match context

The upcoming match between CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali is scheduled for 12.09.2026 18:15 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
CSKA Sofia are in position 3 with 17 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Arda Kardzhali are in position 5 with 16 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW.

Recent results

CSKA Sofia recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLLWLWWW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Arda Kardzhali recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWLWDLD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, CSKA Sofia recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Arda Kardzhali recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.28; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.18%, 26.06% and 18.76%. The model momentum difference is 36.42 points in favour of CSKA Sofia. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair CSKA Sofia -0.5 / Arda Kardzhali +0.5 supports Arda Kardzhali by an average 1.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365) with up to 21 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for CSKA Sofia at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 8 completed matches (87.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.28 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CSKA Sofia at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, CSKA Sofia received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Arda Kardzhali received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Arda Kardzhali at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.