Match context

The upcoming match between Vardar Skopje and Aresimi is scheduled for 07.09.2026 17:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Vardar Skopje are in position 5 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLW. Aresimi are in position 7 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWLL.

Recent results

Vardar Skopje recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLLLWLWL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aresimi recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLLWWDDW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vardar Skopje recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Aresimi recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Vardar Skopje to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 78.30%, 14.66% and 7.05%. The model momentum difference is 71.25 points in favour of Vardar Skopje. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.39%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 2.53).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Vardar Skopje at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 5 completed matches (80.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Aresimi away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Vardar Skopje and Aresimi ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vardar Skopje at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Vardar Skopje received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aresimi away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Aresimi received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 2.53. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.