Match context

The upcoming match between Bashkimi Kumanovo and Vardar Skopje is scheduled for 12.09.2026 14:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Bashkimi Kumanovo are in position 10 with 3 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL. Vardar Skopje are in position 4 with 10 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLL.

Recent results

Bashkimi Kumanovo recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLLLLDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vardar Skopje recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWLLLWLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Bashkimi Kumanovo recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Vardar Skopje recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Vardar Skopje to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 7.03%, 11.42% and 81.56%. The model momentum difference is 74.53 points in favour of Vardar Skopje. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.66%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Bashkimi Kumanovo at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 5.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 5.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 6 completed matches (66.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Vardar Skopje away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Bashkimi Kumanovo and Vardar Skopje ended 3-3. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bashkimi Kumanovo at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 5 total cards per match. In this game, Bashkimi Kumanovo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 100%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vardar Skopje away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Vardar Skopje received 4 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.