Match context

The upcoming match between Heracles and Jong AZ is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:00 in Eerste Divisie. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Heracles are in position 16 with 0 points after 5 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 7 conceded. Jong AZ are in position 19 with 0 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 12 conceded.

Recent results

Heracles recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLWLLL. The averages are 2.70 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Jong AZ recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLWLWWWW. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Heracles recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Jong AZ recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Heracles to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.49%, 16.90% and 11.62%. The model momentum difference is 59.87 points in favour of Heracles. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Heracles +0.25 / Jong AZ -0.25 supports Heracles by an average 4.14 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 29, score 83/100, 82.69% group success rate across 491 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Heracles at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Jong AZ away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Heracles and Jong AZ ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.3 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Heracles at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Heracles received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Jong AZ away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Jong AZ received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Heracles at +0.25. The stored market movement was 4.14 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 29. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.