Match context

The upcoming match between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:00 in Eerste Divisie. The listed venue is Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
NAC Breda are in position 13 with 0 points after 5 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 11 conceded. Jong Utrecht are in position 20 with 0 points after 6 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 15 conceded.

Recent results

NAC Breda recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLWLWWLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Jong Utrecht recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLLLLWW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, NAC Breda recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Jong Utrecht recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as NAC Breda to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.02%, 16.28% and 11.70%. The model momentum difference is 60.31 points in favour of NAC Breda. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.38%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 79/100, 79.36% group success rate across 717 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for NAC Breda at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for NAC Breda at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, NAC Breda received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Jong Utrecht received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.