Match context

The upcoming match between Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht is scheduled for 31.08.2026 18:00 in Eerste Divisie. The listed venue is AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Jong AZ are in position 19 with 0 points. Jong Utrecht are in position 20 with 0 points.

Recent results

Jong AZ recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLWWWWWD. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Jong Utrecht recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLWWLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Jong Utrecht recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Jong AZ or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.60%, 21.66% and 19.74%. The model momentum difference is 38.86 points in favour of Jong AZ. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.29%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Jong AZ -1.5 / Jong Utrecht +1.5 supports Jong Utrecht by an average 1.15 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.68% group success rate across 1090 observations). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Jong AZ at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Jong AZ and Jong Utrecht ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 13 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.3 total corners. The match recorded 13 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Jong AZ at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Jong AZ received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Jong Utrecht received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Jong Utrecht at +1.5. The stored market movement was 1.15 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 16 verifiable pre-match indicators, 12 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.