Match context

The upcoming match between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht is scheduled for 09.10.2026 18:00 in Eerste Divisie. The listed venue is Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
De Graafschap are in position 19 with 8 points after 9 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWL. Jong Utrecht are in position 20 with 7 points after 9 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDL.

Recent results

De Graafschap recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWLLLLDL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Jong Utrecht recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDLLLLLL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and Jong Utrecht recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as De Graafschap or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.60%, 21.66% and 19.74%. The model momentum difference is 38.86 points in favour of De Graafschap. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.29%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair De Graafschap 0 / Jong Utrecht 0 supports Jong Utrecht by an average 1.99 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 29 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.36). At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 79/100, 78.99% group success rate across 833 observations). Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.23, score 86/100, 86.21% bucket win rate across 29 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for De Graafschap at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 9 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 9 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for De Graafschap at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, De Graafschap received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Jong Utrecht away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Jong Utrecht received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Jong Utrecht at 0. The stored market movement was 1.99 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.36. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 8.5 corners at odds of 1.23. The actual market outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 16 verifiable pre-match indicators, 13 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.