Match context

The upcoming match between MVV and Heracles is scheduled for 18.10.2026 14:45 in Eerste Divisie. The listed venue is De Geusselt, Maastricht. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
MVV are in position 8 with 16 points after 10 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL. Heracles are in position 1 with 25 points after 10 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLW.

Recent results

MVV recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLDWLWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Heracles recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWWWWWW. The averages are 3.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, MVV recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Heracles recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Heracles to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.37%, 20.76% and 64.87%. The model momentum difference is 50.50 points in favour of Heracles. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for MVV at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 40.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 10 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Heracles away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 1.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 40.0%, 20.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 10 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between MVV and Heracles ended 1-5. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.1 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for MVV at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.6 total cards per match. In this game, MVV received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Heracles away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 1.8 total cards per match. In this game, Heracles received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 20%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.