Match context

The upcoming match between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven is scheduled for 15.08.2026 18:00 in Eredivisie. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Excelsior recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWDWW. The averages are 3.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. PSV Eindhoven recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLWWWWDW. The averages are 3.30 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Excelsior recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and PSV Eindhoven recorded 10 wins. The average total was 4.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.65; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as PSV Eindhoven to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 15.29%, 20.12% and 64.58%. The model momentum difference is 49.29 points in favour of PSV Eindhoven. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.42%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Excelsior 0 / PSV Eindhoven 0 supports PSV Eindhoven by an average 3.61 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 13 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.7 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.65 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported PSV Eindhoven at 0. The stored market movement was 3.61 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.