Match context

The upcoming match between Ajax and Heerenveen is scheduled for 16.08.2026 14:45 in Eredivisie. The listed venue is Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Ajax recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWWWWWDW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Heerenveen recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWWLDLWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ajax recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Heerenveen recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.67; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ajax to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.59%, 19.91% and 13.51%. The model momentum difference is 53.08 points in favour of Ajax. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between Ajax and Heerenveen ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.67 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.