Match context

The upcoming match between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:00 in Eredivisie. The listed venue is Euroborg, Groningen. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Groningen are in position 2 with 6 points. The stored form sequence is WW. Fortuna Sittard are in position 8 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is LWD.

Recent results

Groningen recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLLWLL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fortuna Sittard recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWLLWWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Groningen recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and Fortuna Sittard recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Groningen to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.05%, 19.86% and 15.09%. The model momentum difference is 49.96 points in favour of Groningen. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.68%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 84/100, 84.45% group success rate across 1061 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Groningen at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Fortuna Sittard away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.7 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Groningen at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Groningen received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fortuna Sittard away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Fortuna Sittard received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.