Match context

The upcoming match between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles is scheduled for 29.08.2026 16:45 in Eredivisie. The listed venue is AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
AZ Alkmaar are in position 1 with 9 points. The stored form sequence is WWW. GO Ahead Eagles are in position 3 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is DW.

Recent results

AZ Alkmaar recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWDWDD. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. GO Ahead Eagles recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWLLWWL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, AZ Alkmaar recorded 6 wins, there were 4 draws, and GO Ahead Eagles recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as AZ Alkmaar to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.98%, 18.13% and 11.90%. The model momentum difference is 58.08 points in favour of AZ Alkmaar. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.83%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair AZ Alkmaar +0.75 / GO Ahead Eagles -0.75 supports AZ Alkmaar by an average 1.14 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.18% group success rate across 661 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for AZ Alkmaar at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for GO Ahead Eagles away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles ended 5-2. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.5 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AZ Alkmaar at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, AZ Alkmaar received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for GO Ahead Eagles away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, GO Ahead Eagles received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported AZ Alkmaar at +0.75. The stored market movement was 1.14 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 5-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 12 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.