Match context

The upcoming match between Fortuna Sittard and Ajax is scheduled for 12.09.2026 18:00 in Eredivisie. The listed venue is Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Fortuna Sittard are in position 6 with 10 points after 5 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 9 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWD. Ajax are in position 8 with 7 points after 4 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDW.

Recent results

Fortuna Sittard recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWDWLLWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ajax recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDDWWWW. The averages are 3 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Sittard recorded 0 wins, there were 2 draws, and Ajax recorded 8 wins. The average total was 3.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 80%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ajax to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.43%, 17.99% and 65.59%. The model momentum difference is 49.16 points in favour of Ajax. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.56%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Fortuna Sittard 0 / Ajax 0 supports Fortuna Sittard by an average 1.93 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 79/100, 79.37% group success rate across 727 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Fortuna Sittard at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ajax away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Fortuna Sittard and Ajax ended 1-5. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.9 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.1 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fortuna Sittard at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Fortuna Sittard received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ajax away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Ajax received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 4 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fortuna Sittard at 0. The stored market movement was 1.93 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-5, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.