Match context

The upcoming match between Lille and Paris Saint Germain is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in Ligue 1. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Lille recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWLWDWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Paris Saint Germain recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDLDLWWD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lille recorded 0 wins, there were 2 draws, and Paris Saint Germain recorded 8 wins. The average total was 4.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 89%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Paris Saint Germain (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.01%, 23.63% and 58.36%. The model momentum difference is 40.35 points in favour of Paris Saint Germain. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Lille -0.25 / Paris Saint Germain +0.25 supports Paris Saint Germain by an average 4.01 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 42 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between Lille and Paris Saint Germain ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.4 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.5 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 89%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Paris Saint Germain at +0.25. The stored market movement was 4.01 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.