Match context

The upcoming match between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco is scheduled for 04.09.2026 19:05 in Ligue 1. The listed venue is Parc des Princes, Paris. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Paris Saint Germain are in position 10 with 2 points. The stored form sequence is DD. Monaco are in position 6 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

Paris Saint Germain recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWDLDLWW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Monaco recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWWDLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Paris Saint Germain recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Monaco recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Paris Saint Germain to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.36%, 16.27% and 13.37%. The model momentum difference is 56.99 points in favour of Paris Saint Germain. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.42%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Paris Saint Germain 0 / Monaco 0 supports Paris Saint Germain by an average 2.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 11 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.03% group success rate across 676 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Paris Saint Germain at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Monaco away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.5 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Paris Saint Germain at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Paris Saint Germain received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Monaco away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Monaco received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Paris Saint Germain at 0. The stored market movement was 2.71 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.