Match context

The upcoming match between Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice is scheduled for 09.08.2026 15:30 in Ekstraklasa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Lech Poznan are in position 4 with 4 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WD. Piast Gliwice are in position 11 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WL.

Recent results

Lech Poznan recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDWWWWDW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Piast Gliwice recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDWWWLLD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lech Poznan recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Piast Gliwice recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 13.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Lech Poznan or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.55%, 22.22% and 18.22%. The model momentum difference is 41.33 points in favour of Lech Poznan. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.77%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 76/100, 76.29% bucket win rate across 329 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

What happened in the match

The match between Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.