Match context

The upcoming match between Novi Pazar and Macva is scheduled for 29.08.2026 19:00 in Super Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Novi Pazar are in position 9 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLD. Macva are in position 10 with 6 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLL.

Recent results

Novi Pazar recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLDWDLLD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Macva recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLLLDWD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Novi Pazar recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Macva recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 30%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.21; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 97%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Novi Pazar or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.60%, 23.39% and 17.01%. The model momentum difference is 42.58 points in favour of Novi Pazar. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.05%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Novi Pazar 0 / Macva 0 supports Novi Pazar by an average 1.31 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Novi Pazar at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Macva away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Novi Pazar and Macva ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.21 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 97%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Novi Pazar at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Novi Pazar received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Macva away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Macva received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Novi Pazar at 0. The stored market movement was 1.31 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.