Match context

The upcoming match between FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani is scheduled for 18.10.2026 14:00 in Super Liga. The listed venue is Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FK Crvena Zvezda are in position 1 with 31 points after 11 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD. Mladost Lucani are in position 7 with 17 points after 11 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWL.

Recent results

FK Crvena Zvezda recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWDWWLW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mladost Lucani recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWLWWDDD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FK Crvena Zvezda recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Mladost Lucani recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 88%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FK Crvena Zvezda to win with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 86.16%, 9.80% and 4.05%. The model momentum difference is 82.11 points in favour of FK Crvena Zvezda. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FK Crvena Zvezda 0 / Mladost Lucani 0 supports FK Crvena Zvezda by an average 5.08 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FK Crvena Zvezda at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 11 of 11 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Mladost Lucani away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 83.3%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 11 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.4 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 88%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Crvena Zvezda at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, FK Crvena Zvezda received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mladost Lucani away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Mladost Lucani received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Crvena Zvezda at 0. The stored market movement was 5.08 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 5-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.