Match context

The upcoming match between Kashiwa Reysol and V-varen Nagasaki is scheduled for 21.08.2026 10:00 in J1 League. The listed venue is SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kashiwa Reysol are in position 3 with 6 points. The stored form sequence is WW. V-varen Nagasaki are in position 10 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LW.

Recent results

Kashiwa Reysol recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLWWWWLL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. V-varen Nagasaki recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWLDLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa Reysol recorded 3 wins, there were 0 draws, and V-varen Nagasaki recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kashiwa Reysol or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.28%, 25.54% and 17.18%. The model momentum difference is 40.09 points in favour of Kashiwa Reysol. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kashiwa Reysol 0 / V-varen Nagasaki 0 supports Kashiwa Reysol by an average 1.55 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 18 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 76/100, 75.54% bucket win rate across 368 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kashiwa Reysol at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for V-varen Nagasaki away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kashiwa Reysol and V-varen Nagasaki ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.25 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kashiwa Reysol at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Kashiwa Reysol received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for V-varen Nagasaki away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, V-varen Nagasaki received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kashiwa Reysol at 0. The stored market movement was 1.55 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.