Match context

The upcoming match between V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo is scheduled for 29.08.2026 09:30 in J1 League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
V-varen Nagasaki are in position 16 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LLW. FC Tokyo are in position 11 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WDL.

Recent results

V-varen Nagasaki recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWLWWLD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Tokyo recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLLWLDLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, V-varen Nagasaki recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and FC Tokyo recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or FC Tokyo (X2) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.38%, 25.46% and 58.15%. The model momentum difference is 41.77 points in favour of FC Tokyo. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -2.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair V-varen Nagasaki -0.25 / FC Tokyo +0.25 supports FC Tokyo by an average 2.92 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 20 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for V-varen Nagasaki at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Tokyo away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between V-varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for V-varen Nagasaki at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, V-varen Nagasaki received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Tokyo away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, FC Tokyo received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FC Tokyo at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.92 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.