Match context

The upcoming match between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Cerezo Osaka is scheduled for 12.09.2026 10:00 in J1 League. The listed venue is Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in position 5 with 11 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDDW. Cerezo Osaka are in position 9 with 10 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWL.

Recent results

Sanfrecce Hiroshima recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWDWWWWL. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cerezo Osaka recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWLWWWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sanfrecce Hiroshima recorded 7 wins, there were 3 draws, and Cerezo Osaka recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.79%, 22.40% and 18.81%. The model momentum difference is 39.98 points in favour of Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.01%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Cerezo Osaka away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Cerezo Osaka ended 6-1. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cerezo Osaka away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Cerezo Osaka received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.