Match context

The upcoming match between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga is scheduled for 17.10.2026 05:00 in J1 League. The listed venue is Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in position 2 with 20 points after 9 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLW. Kyoto Sanga are in position 16 with 8 points after 9 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLD.

Recent results

Sanfrecce Hiroshima recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWLWDW. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kyoto Sanga recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWWLLLDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sanfrecce Hiroshima recorded 4 wins, there were 2 draws, and Kyoto Sanga recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.41%, 20.37% and 12.22%. The model momentum difference is 55.18 points in favour of Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.33%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 9 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kyoto Sanga away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 40.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 9 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kyoto Sanga away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Kyoto Sanga received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.