Match context

The upcoming match between Dukagjini and FC Lugano is scheduled for 29.07.2026 14:30 in UEFA Europa Conference League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Dukagjini recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWDLWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Lugano recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWWDWWDL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or FC Lugano (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.26%, 25.37% and 56.37%. The model momentum difference is 38.11 points in favour of FC Lugano. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.27%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.28, score 81/100, 81.02% bucket win rate across 137 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Dukagjini and FC Lugano ended 1-5. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.28. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.