Match context

The upcoming match between Aston Villa and Arsenal is scheduled for 31.08.2026 19:00 in Premier League. The listed venue is Villa Park, Birmingham. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Aston Villa recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLWLLWWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals. Arsenal recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLWDWWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Arsenal recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Arsenal to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 15.85%, 21.97% and 62.18%. The model momentum difference is 46.32 points in favour of Arsenal. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 78/100, 77.60% bucket win rate across 500 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Aston Villa and Arsenal ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 13 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.