Match context

The upcoming match between Stranraer and Dumbarton is scheduled for 12.09.2026 14:00 in League Two. The listed venue is Stair Park, Stranraer. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Stranraer recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDWLLLL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Dumbarton recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDLLLWLW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Stranraer recorded 2 wins, there were 4 draws, and Dumbarton recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stranraer or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.67%, 22.18% and 19.15%. The model momentum difference is 39.53 points in favour of Stranraer. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stranraer -0.75 / Dumbarton +0.75 supports Stranraer by an average 9.84 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 80.32% bucket win rate across 569 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stranraer at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 6 completed matches (66.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Dumbarton away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stranraer and Dumbarton ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stranraer at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Stranraer received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Dumbarton away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Dumbarton received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Stranraer at -0.75. The stored market movement was 9.84 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.