Match context

The upcoming match between Olimpija Ljubljana and Nafta is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:15 in 1. SNL. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Olimpija Ljubljana are in position 10 with 4 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLL. Nafta are in position 4 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWWL.

Recent results

Olimpija Ljubljana recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLLDLWL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nafta recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWLLLWDD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Olimpija Ljubljana recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Nafta recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.17 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Olimpija Ljubljana or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.38%, 25.38% and 19.24%. The model momentum difference is 36.14 points in favour of Olimpija Ljubljana. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.35%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Olimpija Ljubljana 0 / Nafta 0 supports Nafta by an average 2.88 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 46 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 82/100, 75% bucket win rate across 20 observations). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 77.53% bucket win rate across 454 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Olimpija Ljubljana at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Nafta away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 5 completed matches (80.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Olimpija Ljubljana and Nafta ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.17 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Olimpija Ljubljana at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Olimpija Ljubljana received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nafta away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Nafta received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Nafta at 0. The stored market movement was 2.88 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.