Match context

The upcoming match between Nafta and Maribor is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:15 in 1. SNL. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nafta are in position 4 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWWL. Maribor are in position 1 with 9 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWD.

Recent results

Nafta recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWWLLLWD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Maribor recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDWDDDDW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nafta recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Maribor recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Maribor to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.16%, 21.97% and 60.87%. The model momentum difference is 43.71 points in favour of Maribor. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Nafta 0 / Maribor 0 supports Maribor by an average 4.67 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.97% bucket win rate across 504 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Nafta at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Maribor away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 6 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Nafta and Maribor ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nafta at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Nafta received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maribor away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Maribor received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Maribor at 0. The stored market movement was 4.67 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.