Match context

The upcoming match between Maribor and Mura is scheduled for 06.09.2026 15:30 in 1. SNL. The listed venue is Ljudski vrt, Maribor. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Maribor are in position 1 with 15 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWD. Mura are in position 9 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Maribor recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWDWDDDD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mura recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWDLDL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Maribor recorded 8 wins, there were 1 draws, and Mura recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Maribor to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.00%, 20.20% and 15.81%. The model momentum difference is 48.19 points in favour of Maribor. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.12%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Maribor 0 / Mura 0 supports Mura by an average 1.24 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.83% bucket win rate across 600 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Maribor at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 7 completed matches (71.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Mura away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Maribor and Mura ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maribor at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Maribor received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mura away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Mura received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.75 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Maribor at 0. The stored market movement was 1.24 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.