Match context

The upcoming match between Celje and Nafta is scheduled for 01.11.2026 16:30 in 1. SNL. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Celje are in position 7 with 17 points after 12 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWDL. Nafta are in position 5 with 18 points after 13 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLW.

Recent results

Celje recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDDLWDLLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nafta recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDWLWWLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Celje recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Nafta recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 85.7% of those matches, while 71.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Celje to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.05%, 20.68% and 16.28%. The model momentum difference is 46.77 points in favour of Celje. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Celje -0.25 / Nafta +0.25 supports Celje by an average 1.42 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Celje at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 12 completed matches (83.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Nafta away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 60.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 13 completed matches (84.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Celje and Nafta ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 4 total goals, while this match produced 4. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 85.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Celje at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Celje received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nafta away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Nafta received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Celje at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.42 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.