Match context

The upcoming match between Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat is scheduled for 14.09.2026 17:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Petrovac are in position 6 with 8 points after 7 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDDW. Arsenal Tivat are in position 10 with 4 points after 7 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDD.

Recent results

Petrovac recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDDWDLLLD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Arsenal Tivat recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDDDDLWL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Petrovac recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and Arsenal Tivat recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%; Both teams to score — 30%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Petrovac or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.85%, 26.28% and 17.87%. The model momentum difference is 37.98 points in favour of Petrovac. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.84%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Petrovac at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 6 of 7 completed matches (85.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Arsenal Tivat away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 75.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 7 completed matches (85.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Petrovac at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, Petrovac received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arsenal Tivat away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Arsenal Tivat received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 75% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.