Match context

The upcoming match between Xelajú and Aurora is scheduled for 04.08.2026 02:00 in Liga Nacional. The listed venue is Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Xelajú recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWDWDWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aurora recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLLLDWDL. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Xelajú recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Aurora recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Xelajú to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.41%, 20.65% and 8.94%. The model momentum difference is 61.47 points in favour of Xelajú. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.58%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Xelajú and Aurora ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.25 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.