Match context

The upcoming match between Guastatoya and Marquense is scheduled for 29.08.2026 21:00 in Liga Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Guastatoya recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWLLWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Marquense recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLLDLDW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Guastatoya recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Marquense recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guastatoya or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.13%, 25.13% and 15.73%. The model momentum difference is 43.40 points in favour of Guastatoya. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Guastatoya -0.25 / Marquense +0.25 supports Marquense by an average 1.25 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Guastatoya at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 5 completed matches (80.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Marquense away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 5 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Guastatoya and Marquense ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Marquense at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.25 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.