Match context

The upcoming match between Antigua GFC and Aurora is scheduled for 05.09.2026 01:00 in Liga Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Antigua GFC recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWLLWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aurora recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWLLDLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Antigua GFC recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Aurora recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Antigua GFC to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.49%, 23.34% and 15.17%. The model momentum difference is 46.33 points in favour of Antigua GFC. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.99%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Antigua GFC at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 4 of 5 completed matches (80.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Aurora away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 5.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Antigua GFC and Aurora ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.