Match context

The upcoming match between Mixco and Aurora is scheduled for 13.09.2026 17:00 in Liga Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Mixco recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWWWLLWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Aurora recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWWLWLLDL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mixco recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and Aurora recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Mixco to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.66%, 23.02% and 16.32%. The model momentum difference is 44.34 points in favour of Mixco. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Mixco 0 / Aurora 0 supports Mixco by an average 2.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Mixco at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 8 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Aurora away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 5.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 100.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 8 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Mixco and Aurora ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mixco at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Mixco received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Aurora away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 5 total cards per match. In this game, Aurora received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 100%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mixco at 0. The stored market movement was 2.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.