Match context

The upcoming match between Municipal and Malacateco is scheduled for 14.09.2026 01:00 in Liga Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Municipal recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDWDLWWW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Malacateco recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLDLDWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Municipal recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Malacateco recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Municipal to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.16%, 22.33% and 10.51%. The model momentum difference is 56.65 points in favour of Municipal. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.68%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Municipal +0.25 / Malacateco -0.25 supports Municipal by an average 1.17 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.02).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Municipal at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 6 of 8 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Malacateco away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 8 completed matches (62.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Municipal and Malacateco ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Municipal at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.17 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.02. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.