Match context

The upcoming match between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec is scheduled for 12.09.2026 16:00 in Czech Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sparta Praha are in position 10 with 9 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWWL. FK Jablonec are in position 5 with 13 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDLW.

Recent results

Sparta Praha recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWLLWWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. FK Jablonec recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLWLWWWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sparta Praha recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and FK Jablonec recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sparta Praha or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.26%, 23.45% and 18.29%. The model momentum difference is 39.96 points in favour of Sparta Praha. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.40%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sparta Praha -0.25 / FK Jablonec +0.25 supports FK Jablonec by an average 1.15 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sparta Praha at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FK Jablonec away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.6 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sparta Praha at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Sparta Praha received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Jablonec away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, FK Jablonec received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Jablonec at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.15 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.