Match context

The upcoming match between CSKA Moscow and Fakel is scheduled for 15.08.2026 13:15 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
CSKA Moscow are in position 5 with 4 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is DW. Fakel are in position 14 with 0 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LL.

Recent results

CSKA Moscow recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDWLLLDDW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fakel recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLDWWDW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, CSKA Moscow recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Fakel recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 99%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CSKA Moscow to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.92%, 22.84% and 15.24%. The model momentum difference is 46.68 points in favour of CSKA Moscow. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.59 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -1.55%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair CSKA Moscow 0 / Fakel 0 supports Fakel by an average 2.39 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for CSKA Moscow at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Fakel away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between CSKA Moscow and Fakel ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CSKA Moscow at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, CSKA Moscow received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fakel away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Fakel received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fakel at 0. The stored market movement was 2.39 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.