Match context

The upcoming match between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau is scheduled for 22.08.2026 17:30 in Bundesliga. The listed venue is Merkur Arena, Graz. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sturm Graz are in position 4 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD. Austria Lustenau are in position 6 with 4 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLD.

Recent results

Sturm Graz recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLDWWWWW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Austria Lustenau recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWLDWLDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm Graz recorded 5 wins, there were 0 draws, and Austria Lustenau recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sturm Graz to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.22%, 19.53% and 13.25%. The model momentum difference is 53.97 points in favour of Sturm Graz. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.24%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.67% group success rate across 1380 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sturm Graz at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Austria Lustenau away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.4 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sturm Graz at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Sturm Graz received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Austria Lustenau away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Austria Lustenau received 3 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.