Match context

The upcoming match between Crusaders FC and Larne is scheduled for 10.10.2026 14:00 in Premiership. The listed venue is Seaview, Belfast. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Crusaders FC are in position 5 with 15 points after 10 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWL. Larne are in position 4 with 16 points after 6 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Crusaders FC recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLLWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Larne recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLWDLD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Crusaders FC recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Larne recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Larne to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.03%, 17.38% and 68.59%. The model momentum difference is 54.56 points in favour of Larne. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Crusaders FC at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 75.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 10 completed matches (90.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Larne away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Crusaders FC and Larne ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Crusaders FC at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Crusaders FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 75% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Larne away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Larne received 0 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.