Match context

The upcoming match between Southampton and Bristol City is scheduled for 12.09.2026 14:00 in Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Southampton are in position 13 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWW. Bristol City are in position 7 with 10 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDL.

Recent results

Southampton recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWLWLWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bristol City recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLLDDWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Southampton recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Bristol City recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.57 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 42.9% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Southampton or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.53%, 23.60% and 19.87%. The model momentum difference is 36.65 points in favour of Southampton. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Southampton at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Bristol City away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 0.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Southampton and Bristol City ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.57 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Southampton at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Southampton received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bristol City away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 0.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.33 total cards per match. In this game, Bristol City received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.