Match context

The upcoming match between Fakel and FC Krasnodar is scheduled for 01.09.2026 15:30 in Cup. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Fakel recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLDLLLLD. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Krasnodar recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDWWDD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fakel recorded 0 wins, there were 4 draws, and FC Krasnodar recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.14 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Krasnodar to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.42%, 21.01% and 61.57%. The model momentum difference is 44.15 points in favour of FC Krasnodar. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.57 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -3.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Fakel +0.75 / FC Krasnodar -0.75 supports Fakel by an average 1.00 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 80.22% group success rate across 2892 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Fakel at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Krasnodar away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 2 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Fakel and FC Krasnodar ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.14 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fakel at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Fakel received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Krasnodar away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, FC Krasnodar received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fakel at +0.75. The stored market movement was 1 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.