Match context

The upcoming match between Spartak Moscow and Rodina Moskva is scheduled for 02.09.2026 17:45 in Cup. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Spartak Moscow recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWLWWWDL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rodina Moskva recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWWLLLD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Spartak Moscow recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Rodina Moskva recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Spartak Moscow to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 75.17%, 15.42% and 9.41%. The model momentum difference is 65.75 points in favour of Spartak Moscow. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.29 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -3.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Spartak Moscow 0 / Rodina Moskva 0 supports Spartak Moscow by an average 1.30 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Spartak Moscow at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Spartak Moscow and Rodina Moskva ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Spartak Moscow at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Spartak Moscow received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 4 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Spartak Moscow at 0. The stored market movement was 1.3 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.