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W D L D W
4
🏟 SMH Group Stadium , Chesterfield, Derbyshire
✔ Full Time
2
D W L D L
Ball possession
66%
34%
3.89
Expected goals (xG)
0.53
26
Total shots
6
10
Shots on target
3
9
Shots off target
1
12
Corner kicks
1
4
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
18
Shots inside the box
3
8
Shots outside the box
3
7
Blocked shots
2
1
Goalkeeper saves
6
11
Fouls
13
82%
Pass accuracy
66%
437
Accurate passes
181
535
Total passes
275
0
Goals prevented
0

🔁 Head-to-Head

3
2
4
🟢 Chesterfield 🟡 Draws Tranmere 🔴
Date Match Score
11.04.2026 Chesterfield - Tranmere 1 : 1
25.10.2025 Tranmere - Chesterfield 1 : 1
05.04.2025 Tranmere - Chesterfield 4 : 0
07.12.2024 Chesterfield - Tranmere 3 : 0
01.12.2012 Tranmere - Chesterfield 2 : 1
14.08.2012 Chesterfield - Tranmere 1 : 2
03.03.2012 Chesterfield - Tranmere 1 : 0
09.11.2011 Chesterfield - Tranmere 4 : 3
06.08.2011 Tranmere - Chesterfield 1 : 0

🗓 Latest Matches: Chesterfield

Date Match Score Res
24.10.2026 Chesterfield - Crewe 5 - 1 W
20.10.2026 Chesterfield - Colchester 1 - 1 D
17.10.2026 Port Vale - Chesterfield 1 - 0 L
10.10.2026 Crawley Town - Chesterfield 2 - 2 D
03.10.2026 Chesterfield - Tranmere 4 - 2 W

📆 Latest Matches: Tranmere

Date Match Score Res
24.10.2026 Crawley Town - Tranmere 1 - 1 D
20.10.2026 Northampton - Tranmere 0 - 1 W
17.10.2026 Tranmere - Barnet 1 - 2 L
10.10.2026 Tranmere - Rochdale 1 - 1 D
03.10.2026 Chesterfield - Tranmere 4 - 2 L

Pre-match analysis

This analysis is locked and its content can no longer be changed.

Match context

The upcoming match between Chesterfield and Tranmere is scheduled for 03.10.2026 11:30 in League Two. The listed venue is SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Chesterfield are in position 11 with 11 points after 8 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDD. Tranmere are in position 10 with 11 points after 8 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLWD.

Recent results

Chesterfield recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWDDLWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tranmere recorded 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLWDDDWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Chesterfield recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Tranmere recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.89 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 55.6% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 93%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Chesterfield or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.03%, 25.28% and 19.69%. The model momentum difference is 35.33 points in favour of Chesterfield. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.04%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.65% bucket win rate across 534 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Chesterfield at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Tranmere away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 75.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

Generated: 2026-10-03 08:00:03 · Locked: 2026-10-03 13:10:08

Post-match review

What happened in the match

The match between Chesterfield and Tranmere ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 13 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.89 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.8 total corners. The match recorded 13 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 93%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chesterfield at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Chesterfield received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tranmere away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Tranmere received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 75% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.

Added after the match: 2026-10-03 15:51:22
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