Match context

The upcoming match between York and Northampton is scheduled for 10.10.2026 14:00 in League Two. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
York are in position 6 with 14 points after 8 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDL. Northampton are in position 22 with 6 points after 7 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDD.

Recent results

York recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLWDLWDW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Northampton recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWDDLLDL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, York recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Northampton recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.13 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 95%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as York to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.95%, 22.72% and 14.33%. The model momentum difference is 48.61 points in favour of York. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.84%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair York 0 / Northampton 0 supports York by an average 5.87 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 14 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for York at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Northampton away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between York and Northampton ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.13 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 95%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for York at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, York received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Northampton away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Northampton received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported York at 0. The stored market movement was 5.87 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.