Match context

The upcoming match between Monza and Avellino is scheduled for 14.08.2026 18:45 in Coppa Italia. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Monza recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLWWDDL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Avellino recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLWLWWD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monza recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Avellino recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Monza or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.01%, 25.28% and 18.71%. The model momentum difference is 37.30 points in favour of Monza. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.89%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Monza and Avellino ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 3 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 3 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.