Match context

The upcoming match between Lazio and Mantova is scheduled for 16.08.2026 19:15 in Coppa Italia. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Lazio recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWLLLW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mantova recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWLWWL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 92%; over 9.5 corners — 82%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Lazio to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.94%, 18.71% and 9.35%. The model momentum difference is 62.59 points in favour of Lazio. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Lazio +0.25 / Mantova -0.25 supports Lazio by an average 2.44 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Lazio and Mantova ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.8 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 92%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 82%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Lazio at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.44 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.